September 2026 VCM Updates: Section A

This article is an automatically translated version of the original Japanese article. Please refer to the Japanese version for the most accurate information.

This is a newsletter from Deloitte Tohmatsu Sustainacraft, Inc. This article is Section A (Market Trends) of our VCM Updates (Voluntary Carbon Market updates).

«Structure of VCM Updates»

A. Voluntary Carbon Credit Market Trends ← Covered in this article

1. Analysis of Credit Issuance, Retirement, and Investment Trends
2. Project Pipeline Analysis
3. Detailed Explanation Section

B. Trends in Major Overseas Regulations

Introduction

Credit Issuance Performance
The total volume of Credit Issuance in August 2026 reached 19.08 million units, recording a significant increase of +59.34% year-over-year (YoY). On the other hand, the total volume of Retirement stood at 6.21 million units, showing a downward trend with a decrease of -35.39% YoY. Regarding labeled credits, the supply of credits compliant with quality standards and international frameworks is steadily progressing, with 1.00 million units issued with the Paris Agreement Article 6 label and 1.67 million units issued with the CCP (Core Carbon Principles) label.

Project Pipeline Trends
Regarding new project Registration this month, 45 Nature-based projects were confirmed, a significant increase from the same month last year (8 projects). By type, ARR (Afforestation, Reforestation and Revegetation) was the most common with 19 projects (approx. 42%), and by country, India had the highest number. Three CDR projects were also registered, showing ongoing diversification on the supply side. Details are explained in section A-2 below.

Investment Trends
We introduce a total of 15 major investment cases this month (totaling approximately $140 million). Involvement in Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) by major U.S. tech companies continues to diversify with Microsoft, PayPal, and Google; the forms of involvement are expanding beyond Offtake Agreements to include R&D grants and portfolio investments. In terms of technology for CDR projects, Biochar remains a central technology, while early-stage investment is also becoming active in startups focused on new materials such as molten borates and silicon fertilizers.

A. Voluntary Carbon Credit Market Trends

A-1: Analysis of Credit Issuance, Retirement, and Investment Trends

Target Registries: VCS (Verra), GS (Gold Standard), CAR (Climate Action Reserve), ACR (American Carbon Registry), ART-TREES, Puro (Puro.earth), Isometric

Target Period: August 2026

Notes: Please note that companies are not required to register with their real names in the registries for Retirement, so accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Furthermore, as there are delays in registry updates, please be aware that the number of projects or status changes for this target period may fluctuate in the future.

• Issuance Performance: 19.08 million (+59.34% YoY)
  • By registry, Gold Standard (GS) accounted for the majority with 10.86 million units, followed by VCS with 3.85 million units. Issuance of 19,043 units was also confirmed from the emerging registry, Isometric.
  • By type, Energy (Renewables, Cookstoves, etc.) was dominant at 11.38 million units, followed by Nature Restoration at 2.86 million units.
• Retirement Performance: 6.21 million (-35.39% YoY)
  • By registry, VCS accounted for approximately 65% of the total with 4.01 million units, demonstrating the high liquidity of VCS credits in the market.
  • By type, retirements for Nature-based Solutions (NbS), such as Indonesian REDD+ projects (Katingan, etc.) and U.S. ARR (Afforestation) projects, were prominent.

<List of Issued Projects>

The labels for the credits shown below are all based on information provided by each certification body (registry). Therefore, please note the following:

・Even if a methodology itself is CORSIA eligible or CCP approved, it will not be counted as a labeled credit in the table below unless the registry's data includes label information.

・Only VCS and GS registries provide information on Article 6 labels.

Top Issued Projects List

Below are the top 10 projects for which credits were issued in August 2026, and the list of projects for which labels (Article 6, CCP, CORSIA, Removal) were issued.

Issuance Performance by Label (Article 6)

Approximately 1.00 million units of credits with the Paris Agreement Article 6 label were issued, primarily from cookstove projects in Rwanda, Cambodia, and Nigeria. In particular, VCS-4151 (BioLite Africa, a grouped project with Rwanda as the primary registered country) has achieved issuance with Article 6 labels across multiple countries including Nigeria and Madagascar, showing accelerating movement in anticipation of Corresponding Adjustments (CA).

Issuance Performance by Label (CCP)

Approximately 1.67 million units of CCP-labeled credits as defined by the IC-VCM were issued. In addition to cookstove projects in Somalia and Uganda, landfill gas (LFG) capture and IFM projects in the U.S. have obtained CCP certification, indicating that the supply system is being established to meet demand for high-quality credits.

Issuance Performance by Label (CORSIA)

Approximately 0.61 million units of CORSIA-eligible credits, the emission reduction framework for the aviation industry, were issued for projects such as cookstoves in Cambodia and IFM in Mexico.

Issuance Performance by Label (Removal)

Regarding Removal labels, issuances were confirmed for ALM (Agricultural Land Management) projects in France and Belgium under the Gold Standard (GS).

<List of Retired Projects>

In terms of Nature-based retirement performance, the Katingan Peatland Restoration and Conservation Project (VCS-1477), a REDD+ project in Indonesia, ranked top with approximately 0.18 million units. Other top rankings were occupied by U.S. afforestation projects (GreenTrees) and Brazilian reforestation projects (Re.Green).

<List of Retiring Companies>

Among retiring companies this month, the Italian engineering firm Saipem Group ranked top by retiring 100,000 units, mainly from NbS projects. Microsoft retired approximately 65,000 units from a Brazilian forest restoration project (Re.Green), bringing its cumulative retirement volume to 1.47 million units. Continued retirements by the financial sector (Wells Fargo, Sun Life, Amex, TD Bank) were also confirmed.

<Investment Trends in Nature-based and CDR Projects>

Target Cases: Covers investments in Nature-based and CDR projects.

Target Period: August 2026

Notes: As for "Credits" and "Group investment," only announced figures are recorded, so some fields may be blank.

We introduce 15 major investment cases for August 2026. In the Nature-based field, a $100 million forest management investment by EFM was the largest case, but in terms of the number of cases, the CDR field accounted for the majority with 13 cases. Notably, major U.S. tech companies (Microsoft, PayPal, Google) continue to expand their involvement in CDR through diverse forms such as Offtake Agreements, portfolio investments, and R&D grants. Additionally, projects using Biochar occupied the center of the technological landscape with 6 cases. Early-stage investments in new material and new technology CDR startups, such as Mantel (molten borates), Neocrete (concrete additives), and Mafix (silicon fertilizers), were also prominent.

For details on each case, please refer to "A-3: Detailed Explanation Section."

A-2: Project Pipeline Analysis

Target Registries: VCS (Verra), GS (Gold Standard), CAR (Climate Action Reserve), ACR (American Carbon Registry), ART-TREES, Puro (Puro.earth), Isometric

Target Projects: Pipelines related to Nature-based and CDR

Target Period: August 2026

Notes: Please be aware that there may be slight time lags in registry updates, so the number of projects or status changes for this target period may fluctuate in the future.

Terminology: Annual ER refers to the annual Emission Reduction and Removal volume (tCO₂e).

In this section, we introduce new pipeline projects for Nature-based Solutions and CDR from the past month.

Please note that the Listing Date in this database is obtained directly from the registries or based on estimates. Therefore, the comprehensiveness and accuracy of the data are not guaranteed.

<Nature-based Project Pipeline>

New registrations for Nature-based Solutions (NbS) projects in August 2026 were