July 2026 VCM Updates: Section A

This article is an automatically translated version of the original Japanese article. Please refer to the Japanese version for the most accurate information.

This is the newsletter from Deloitte Tohmatsu SustainaCraft, Inc. This article is Section A (Market Trends) of our VCM Updates (Voluntary Carbon Market updates).

«Structure of VCM Updates»

A. Voluntary Carbon Market Trends ← Target of this article

1. Analysis of Credit Issuance, Retirement, and Investment Trends
2. Project Pipeline Analysis
3. Detailed Explanation Section

B. Trends in Major Overseas Regulations

Introduction

Credit Issuance Performance
The total volume of credit issuance in June 2026 reached 13.09 million units, a 26.39% decrease compared to the same month last year. Total retirement also reached 8.27 million units, down 18.42% year-on-year. Regarding labeled credits, approximately 337,000 units of CCP (Core Carbon Principles) approved credits were issued. Additionally, the issuance of CORSIA-eligible credits and credits with "Removal" labels was confirmed, albeit in limited quantities. While issuance across the overall market is trending toward suppression, there is an observable trend of increasing selectivity toward high-quality credits.

Project Pipeline Trends
New project registrations this month included 29 Nature-based Solutions (NbS) projects and 3 Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) projects. In the NbS sector, two REDD+ projects aimed at peatland conservation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) recorded the largest estimated annual ER (Emission Reductions). Registrations in the Asian agricultural sector were also prominent, including a rice paddy management project in the Philippines, several agricultural land management projects in India, and an agroforestry project in Vietnam. Furthermore, new afforestation projects in Brazil and Papua New Guinea were registered with Isometric. In the CDR sector, two biochar projects in China and India and one Enhanced Rock Weathering (ERW) project in India were registered with Puro.earth and Isometric. Details are provided in Section A-2 below.

Investment Trends
In the investment trends for June 2026, the most notable point regarding Japanese companies' involvement in the carbon market was the multiple instances of deep capital participation, moving beyond simple offtake agreements. Japanese firms from various sectors—trading houses, banks, and airlines—invested capital into the CDR market in their respective ways: Sumitomo Corporation's project-level investment in Graphyte, NYK Group's credit purchase from the same company, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation’s strategic investment in Deep Sky, and JAL Innovation Fund’s co-investment in Captura. Additionally, the month saw several movements indicating market maturity, such as expanded CDR investment by US and Chinese Big Tech companies, fundraising for carbon credit projects utilizing securities tokenization in Southeast Asia, and the advancement of certification and verification through the use of AI by registries. Details are provided in Section A-3 below.

A. Voluntary Carbon Market Trends

A-1: Analysis of Credit Issuance, Retirement, and Investment Trends

Target Registries: VCS (Verra), GS (Gold Standard), CAR (Climate Action Reserve), ACR (American Carbon Registry), ART-TREES, Puro (Puro.earth), Isometric

Period: June 2026

Notes: Please note that companies retiring credits are not required to register with their real names in the registries, and therefore accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Furthermore, as there are delays in registry updates, please be aware that project numbers and status changes for this period may still occur in the future.

• Issuance Performance: 13.09 million (Down 26.39% year-on-year)
  • By registry, VCS was the largest with 5.36 million units, followed by CAR with 4.04 million units.
  • By type, Energy accounted for about half at 6.47 million units, followed by Non-CO2 gases at 2.50 million units.
• Retirement Performance: 8.27 million (Down 18.42% year-on-year)
  • By registry, VCS (4.55 million) and Gold Standard (2.29 million) accounted for the majority of retirements.
  • In Nature-based Solutions (Nature Restoration/REDD+) retirements, credits from REDD+ projects in Peru and Tanzania were particularly prominent.

< List of Issued Projects >

The credit labels displayed below are based entirely on information provided by each certification body (registry). Therefore, please note the following:

・Even if a methodology itself is CORSIA eligible or CCP approved, it will not be counted as a labeled credit in the table below unless the label information is included in the registry's data.

・Only the VCS and GS registries provide information regarding Article 6 labels.

Top Issued Projects List

The following is a list of the top 10 projects for which credits were issued in June 2026, as well as issuance projects granted labels (Article 6, CCP, CORSIA, Removal).

Although not appearing in this top list, Mati Carbon issued 492.4 tons of CO2 removal credits this month under Isometric's new V1.2 ERW protocol (which we introduced in last month's methodology newsletter), becoming the first company certified under this protocol (Source). While the issuance volume itself is small, it is a notable development as ERW credits meeting more rigorous MRV standards have actually begun to be supplied to the market.

Label Issuance Performance (Article 6)

No new issuance projects with Article 6 labels were confirmed in the registry data this month.

Label Issuance Performance (CCP)

Credits with CCP labels were primarily issued from waste handling (Landfill Gas) and cookstove projects. Landfill gas capture projects in the United States accounted for a particularly large share.

Label Issuance Performance (CORSIA)

A small amount of CORSIA-eligible labels was recorded for a wind power project in El Salvador.

Label Issuance Performance (Removal)

Regarding removal labels, a small amount of issuance was confirmed for a forest management (IFM) project in the United States.

< List of Retired Projects (Nature-based Solutions) >

In NbS retirements, REDD+ projects such as "TAHUAMANU" in Peru and "Ntakata Mountains" in Tanzania held high shares. Additionally, US IFM projects in the ACR registry are also being actively retired.

< Retired Company List >

This month, companies such as CMA CGM and German pet food manufacturer Josera Petfood performed large-scale retirements. Additionally, consulting firms such as PwC and Deloitte, and energy companies such as Eni, are continuously retiring credits.

< Investment Trends in Nature-based Solutions and CDR Projects >

Target Deals: Covers investments in Nature-based Solutions and CDR.

Period: June 2026

Notes: "Credits" and "Investment Amount" only record announced figures; blanks may exist where data is unavailable.

The table below summarizes 32 major investment and fundraising deals identified by our company. While the majority are concluded or executed deals, some large-scale deals at the commitment or concept stage (indicated by † and ‡ in the table) that have a high market impact are also included. This month was marked by investments from Japanese companies, with trading houses, banks, and airlines entering the CDR market with capital through different forms. It also includes several deals showing the market's expansion, such as CDR investments by US and Chinese Big Tech companies and securities tokenization deals in Southeast Asia. For more details, see "A-3: Detailed Explanation Section."

† Deals at the commitment stage (prior to contract conclusion/execution).

‡ Deals at the conception/preparation (Concept) stage.

A-2: Project Pipeline Analysis

Target Registries: VCS (Verra), GS (Gold Standard), CAR (Climate Action Reserve), ACR (American Carbon Registry), ART-TREES, Puro (Puro.earth), Isometric

Target Projects: Pipeline related to Nature-based Solutions (NbS) and Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)

Period: June 2026

Notes: Please note that as there is some time lag in registry updates, project numbers and status changes for this period may still occur in the future.

Terminology: Annual ER refers to the annual amount of emission reductions or removals (tCO₂e).

This section introduces last month's new pipeline projects related to Nature-based Solutions and CDR. Please note that the listing dates in our database are either obtained directly from the registries or are based on estimates. Therefore, we do not guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the data.

< Nature-based Solutions Project Pipeline >

In the Nature-based Solutions (NbS) pipeline for June 2026...