Paris Agreement Article 6 (6.2 / 6.4) Periodic Update / Current State of REDD+

This article is an automatically translated version of the original Japanese article. Please refer to the Japanese version for the most accurate information.

This is the newsletter from Deloitte Tohmatsu Sustainacraft, Inc. This article provides updates on major carbon-related policy trends based on the following items:

• Policy Trends
  • Paris Agreement Article 6.2 (Bilateral Cooperation)
  • Paris Agreement Article 6.4 (Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism)
  • National Carbon-Related Policies
  • Non-State Actor Initiatives
  • UNFCCC Registry
• Analysis Article
  • Exploring the "Current Status" of REDD+

Keywords: Article 6, Bilateral Cooperation, PACM, JCM, REDD+

Introduction

Policy trends from April to mid-May 2026 were characterized by the operationalization of international trading under the Paris Agreement and a clear restructuring of existing systems around quality standards. Under Article 6.2, Japan signed its 32nd JCM partnership with Oman. Additionally, the intergovernmental network for creating ITMOs (Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes) continues to expand, evidenced by the signing of a bilateral implementation agreement between Singapore and the Philippines, and Norway’s agreements with Pakistan and Morocco.

Regarding Article 6.4, the United Nations (UNFCCC) released a draft of the registry rules, establishing the technical foundation for the full-scale operation of the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM). Within the UNFCCC context, Japan, along with JCM partner countries Thailand and the Maldives, submitted their Annual Information Reports under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement.

In the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM), market selection based on quality has intensified, with Core Carbon Principles (CCP) labels beginning to command price premiums. Discussions regarding the future of Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) remain intense between industry and policymakers, particularly concerning benchmark settings and the phase-out of free allocations after 2026.

In the concluding analysis article, we summarize the "Current Status of REDD+." Amidst renewed interest in REDD+ given the price ranges of the GX-ETS, we will examine risks based on the latest scientific findings, the evolving "Jurisdictional REDD+ (J-REDD+)," fair pricing, and sustainability. Finally, we will touch upon implications for JCM REDD+.

1. Major Global Regulatory Trends

Trends Related to Paris Agreement Article 6.2

Paris Agreement Article 6.2 (Bilateral and Multilateral Cooperative Approaches) serves as an international framework for carbon credit trading to achieve Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and this month saw significant progress across several countries.

• Further Expansion and Formalization of Partnerships
  • Japan and Oman signed a Memorandum of Cooperation (MoC) to establish the JCM. This makes Oman Japan's 32nd partner country (Source).
  • Singapore and the Philippines signed a bilateral implementation agreement under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement. This signifies a further expansion of Singapore’s growing portfolio (Source).
  • Pakistan and Norway (Source) and Morocco and Norway (Source) also concluded bilateral agreements under Article 6.2, achieving "historic milestones" that enable credit trading as ITMOs.
• System Operation and National Regulatory Development
  • Brazil has indicated its intention to finalize draft regulations regarding ITMOs by mid-2026, aiming to solidify its position as a major supplier in South America (Source).
  • Japan and Vietnam amended their existing MoC to strengthen cooperation in low-carbon growth initiatives, aiming to improve the quality of JCM projects (Source).

Trends Related to Paris Agreement Article 6.4

Regarding Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement (PACM), the Supervisory Body is making progress on the detailed operational rules.

• Publication of PACM Registry Rules
  • The UNFCCC released a draft of the PACM registry rules. These rules provide detailed provisions for account management, transfer procedures, and requirements for removal activities, and are expected to be finalized at upcoming Supervisory Body meetings (Source).
• Methodology Development and Priority Areas
  • Regarding the N2O reduction framework, an expert group has made recommendations for adoption. Meanwhile, cookstove methodologies are noted as requiring further consideration (Source).
• Concerns over Consistency with Regional Regulations
  • NGOs have criticized the draft European Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF), stating that its requirements are weaker than Article 6.4 standards and could undermine its credibility as a climate measure, raising concerns about the creation of double standards between international and regional rules (Source).

National Carbon-Related Policies

From April to May 2026, various countries faced challenges regarding the deepening of Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) and the political stability of carbon pricing.

• EU ETS and CBAM Trends
  • The European Commission postponed the publication of benchmarks for determining free allocation volumes for the 2026–2030 period (Source).
  • A coalition of major Nordic companies (with total revenues of 303 billion euros) called on EU leaders to maintain the ETS, stating that "weakening carbon markets would waste the opportunity for decarbonization" (Source).
  • The European Court of Justice ruled that Hungary’s carbon tax violates EU Emissions Trading System rules. This reaffirmed the necessity of institutional uniformity within the region (Source).
• Specific National/Regional Policies and Uncertainties
  • In the UK, the Conservative Party pledged to abolish the carbon tax if they win the election, prioritizing cost reductions for companies. This has raised concerns about the impact on decarbonization investment (Source).
  • China announced plans to develop infrastructure by the end of the year to allow financial institutions to participate in the National ETS (Source).
  • South Korea has raised its emission reduction targets to a maximum of 61% and is intensifying preparations to launch a carbon futures market (Source).
• Promoting Credit Use in Asia
  • Singapore and Thailand have launched a call for carbon credit projects under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Approved credits can be used to offset Singapore’s carbon tax payments (Source).

Non-State Actor Initiatives

To enhance the reliability of the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM), the application of quality labels, centered on the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (IC-VCM), is bringing concrete changes to the market.

• Spread of IC-VCM and CCP Labels
  • IC-VCM newly qualified the Global Carbon Council, a Qatar-based carbon standard body. This opens a pathway for the supply of high-quality credits from the Middle East (Source).
  • Market data from April shows a price premium for CCP-labeled credits in the VCM, indicating that buyers' "selection for high-quality credits" is starting to be reflected in prices (Source).
• SBTi Criteria Update
  • The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) announced an update to the "Absolute Contraction Approach" used by companies to set emission reduction targets, calling for maintained ambition and consistency in implementation toward achieving Net Zero (Source).
• New Zealand’s Unique Strategy
  • The New Zealand government announced a strategy and assurance framework to expand the voluntary carbon and nature markets. The aim is to attract private capital into nature restoration projects (Source).
• Emergence of Legal Risks
  • Climate-related litigation risks are rising, with state-law-based lawsuits against fossil fuel companies continuing in U.S. courts. This suggests an era where legal liability for corporate claims in the VCM will be strictly scrutinized (Source).

2. UNFCCC Updates

Introduction

Between April and May 2026, a total of six important reports were submitted to the UNFCCC registry. The highlight of this month is the submission of Annual Information Reports under Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement by Japan and its JCM partner countries, Thailand and the Maldives. In addition to JCM, Thailand reported its first transfer of ITMOs in the transport sector under a cooperative approach with Switzerland. Furthermore, India, a major emitter, submitted its next NDC (2031-2035) and its first Biennial Transparency Report (BTR1), clearly stating its intent to create significant carbon sequestration in the forest sector and utilize Article 6—a highly significant development.

Article 6 Reporting

• Japan - Annual Information Report: Acquired a total of 1,442 tCO2 eq in JCM credits from Thailand and the Maldives in 2025. This indicates that JCM projects under the Paris Agreement have begun to be recognized and managed as "ITMOs" on the international registry.
• Thailand - Annual Information Report: The Thai government reported that a total of 21,138 tCO2 eq (Vintage 2022/23) was first transferred to Switzerland between 2023 and 2024, and reported 1,009 tCO2 eq (Vintage 2021) in 2025. Private companies such as Energy Absolute Public Company Ltd. are listed as authorized entities, showing that private-sector-led Article 6 projects are leading the way.
• Maldives - Annual Information Report: Authorized 433 tCO2 eq of mitigation outcomes under the JCM authorization ID "JCM-MV002-001." The operation of a domestic registry was suggested, showing that the ITMO tracking system through the JCM is taking shape.
• Switzerland - Annual Information Report: Reported the acquisition and Voluntary Cancellation of ITMOs while advancing cooperative approaches in parallel with Thailand, Vanuatu, and Ghana.

NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution)

India - Next NDC (2031-2035)

India submitted ambitious next-term targets with a view toward becoming a developed nation (Viksit Bharat) by 2047.

• Reduction Target: Reduce emission intensity per GDP by 47% by 2035 compared to 2005 levels. Increase the share of non-fossil fuel-based power generation capacity to approximately 60%.
• Forest Sector: Create 350 to 400 million tonnes of additional carbon sequestration (CO2 equivalent) by 2035.
• Intent to Use Article 6: Clearly stated the intent to utilize Article 6 to promote the introduction of emerging technologies such as green hydrogen, offshore wind, and CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage).

India - First Biennial Transparency Report (BTR1)

India submitted its first report under the ETF (Enhanced Transparency Framework), making its progress visible.

• Current Status: As of 2022, GDP emission intensity has been reduced by 37.38% (relative to 2005), putting the country well on track toward its 2030 target (45% reduction).
• Forestry Progress: Achieved a cumulative 2.44 billion tonnes of additional sequestration between 2005 and 2022.

3. Analysis Article: Exploring the "Current Status" of REDD+

Introduction

Given the price ranges of the GX-ETS, interest in REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in developing countries) is rising again. On the other hand, regarding REDD+, a series of academic papers and investigative reports in 2023 claimed that many previous REDD+ projects (referred to as first-generation REDD+) significantly overestimated their actual forest conservation effects. Because of this, the image of "REDD+ as high risk" seems to remain deeply rooted.

Several years have passed since then, scientific verification of REDD+ has deepened, and reforms of the certification systems (Jurisdictional REDD+) that issue credits are progressing. In this article, we look back at new scientific findings from several academic papers published between 2024 and 2026, and summarize the current status of REDD+ based on trends in certification schemes and market prices.